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Newton Portal
UK Institutional Insights

Paul Brain

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Theme update
Blog

Inflation, debt and rates: The trinity defining markets

We assess the current and potential future impact of inflation, debt and interest rates upon markets.

12 June 2024 Paul Brain
Video

Brainwaves 12: What might upset the ‘Goldilocks’ economic backdrop for markets?

Teaser. We consider the macro indicators that could dampen positive market sentiment later this year.

29 May 2024 Paul Brain, Matt Goodburn
Blog

Market outlook: A case of déjà vu?

We analyse how potentially higher-for-longer inflation could influence markets over the coming months.

24 April 2024 Paul Brain
Blog

Teaser title

Teaser text - RJP test.

01 April 2024 Paul Brain
Video

Brainwaves 11: Is it time for an absolute-return revival?

Does the new market regime provide a backdrop that could help absolute-return strategies to prosper?

22 February 2024 Matt Goodburn, Paul Brain, Catherine Doyle
A mood of change
Blog

Absolute-return investing: A new golden age?

Why we believe a changed macroeconomic backdrop makes an absolute-return investment approach increasingly relevant.

19 January 2024 Paul Brain, Catherine Doyle
Brainwaves 10: Macro Matters: How will the economic slowdown land in 2024?
Video

Brainwaves episode 10: macro matters: how will the economic slowdown land in 2024?

What are the crucial macro indicators that will help determine the severity of any downturn in 2024?

18 December 2023 Matt Goodburn, Paul Brain
Megacities medium
Blog

SVB: Breaking the system?

Could we see further financial casualties this year?

20 March 2023 Paul Brain
Brainwaves
Video

Brainwaves episode 2: The bond outlook from Europe

Fixed-income leader Paul Brain discusses the outlook for European bond markets.

17 February 2023 Paul Brain, Matt Goodburn
Coat, Clothing, Jacket
Video

Brainwaves episode 1: The outlook for bonds in 2023

Fixed-income head Paul Brain explains why he believes this year could be more positive for bonds.

02 February 2023 Paul Brain, Matt Goodburn
Blog

Global bond outlook: how far can the rally go?

How far can the bond rally go?

04 January 2023 Paul Brain
The power of divergence
Blog

The power of divergence

We analyse how diverging economies can create opportunities for bond investors with a global mindset.

01 September 2022 Paul Brain
Evolution not revolution: how our macro themes evolve
Blog

Evolution not revolution: how our macro themes evolve

How our macro-focused investment themes have evolved to deal with a changing geopolitical and economic backdrop.

04 August 2022 Paul Brain
Diverging fortunes: unearthing US bond opportunities
Blog

Diverging fortunes: unearthing US bond opportunities

We examine how the theme of divergence is creating opportunities for global bond investors in the US market.

07 June 2022 Paul Brain
On the rise…
Blog

On the rise…

We assess what the Fed’s latest monetary-policy signalling could mean for bond markets.

28 January 2022 Paul Brain
Symbol, Road Sign, Sign
Blog

Inflation: stick or twist?

We assess central banks’ latest strategies on interest rates as near-term inflation continues to rise.

29 November 2021 Paul Brain
Insights
Blog

Time for taper tantrum II?

We assess the mood in bond markets as central banks once again start to focus on tapering quantitative-easing…

17 September 2021 Paul Brain
Something strange in bond markets
Blog

Something strange in bond markets…

We assess the drivers behind unusual recent moves in global bond markets and consider what may happen next.

28 July 2021 Paul Brain
Inflationary Fears Overdone?
Blog

Inflationary fears overdone?

We assess the near and mid-term implications of central-bank and government policy for bond markets.

07 April 2021 Paul Brain
Fast forward: A journey to the future of investment
Blog

Finding opportunities in a world of vanishing interest rates

How a multi-asset credit approach could help investors seeking better yields and diversification.

16 December 2020 Paul Brain
US election
Blog

US election: bond investors shift focus to 2021

We discuss how bond markets have responded to the US election.

09 November 2020 Paul Brain
Blog

Beyond Covid-19: The ‘U-bend’ recovery

Why we believe the post-pandemic economy will take some time to get back to pre-crisis levels.

20 August 2020 Paul Brain
Blog

European recovery assured?

We assess the ramifications of the European Union’s €750bn deal for EU bond markets and the euro.

21 July 2020 Paul Brain
US dollar: devalue to save the world?
Blog

US dollar: devalue to save the world?

We assess how US-dollar strength will affect the global economy as it starts to recover from the pandemic.

22 May 2020 Paul Brain
Blog

Looking through the pandemic: The shape of the recovery

We assess some potential consequences of the pandemic, and how they may play out in the global economy.

11 May 2020 Paul Brain, Howard Cunningham
The rise and rise of ‘MMT’ economics
Blog

Save and prosper?

How the pandemic and rescue packages are changing both corporate behaviour and the dynamics of fixed-income markets.

20 April 2020 Howard Cunningham, Paul Brain
Covid-19: Looking through the crisis
Blog

Covid-19: Looking through the crisis

We analyse the impact of Covid-19 on global bond markets in anticipation of the next stage.

19 March 2020 Paul Brain
The pain in Spain
Blog

The pain in Spain

As the political deadlock looks set to continue in Spain, we assess the impact on debt markets.

11 November 2019 Paul Brain
Blog

What now for Spain?

Political uncertainty could create short-term instability for Spanish bond spreads, but will it last?

01 May 2019 Paul Brain
Blog

Tick tock

As the bond-market cycle clock ticks on, we offer our outlook for 2019.

11 February 2019 Paul Brain
Blog

Awaiting the endgame

At our investment conference, we discussed the stress indicators that could herald the next market stage for bonds.

30 November 2018 Paul Brain
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This is a financial promotion. Issued by Newton Investment Management Limited, The Bank of New York Mellon Centre, 160 Queen Victoria Street, London, EC4V 4LA. Registered in England No. 01371973. Newton Investment Management is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, 12 Endeavour Square, London, E20 1JN and is a subsidiary of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation. Material in this publication is for general information only. The opinions expressed in this document are those of Newton and should not be construed as investment advice or recommendations for any purchase or sale of any specific security or commodity. Certain information contained herein is based on outside sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. You should consult your advisor to determine whether any particular investment strategy is appropriate. This material is for institutional investors only. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Your capital may be at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the original amount invested.