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US Institutional Insights

Paul Brain

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Blog

Inflation, Debt and Rates: The Trinity Defining Markets

We assess the current and potential future impact of inflation, debt and interest rates upon markets.

June 21, 2024 Paul Brain
Blog

Market Outlook: A Case of Déjà Vu?

We analyze how potentially higher-for-longer inflation could influence markets over the coming months.

April 24, 2024 Paul Brain
Video

Brainwaves 11: Is It Time For An Absolute-Return Revival?

Does the new market regime provide a backdrop that could help absolute-return strategies to prosper?

February 23, 2024 Matt Goodburn, Paul Brain, Catherine Doyle
A mood of change
Blog

Absolute-Return Investing: A New Golden Age?

Why we believe a changed macroeconomic backdrop makes an absolute-return investment approach increasingly relevant.

January 19, 2024 Paul Brain, Catherine Doyle
Brainwaves 10: Macro Matters: How will the economic slowdown land in 2024?
Video

Brainwaves 10: Macro Matters: How Will the Economic Slowdown Land in 2024?

What are the crucial macro indicators that will help determine the severity of any downturn in 2024?

December 18, 2023 Matt Goodburn, Paul Brain
Breaking the System
Blog

Breaking the System

We analyze the potential consequences of tighter money supply and changing central-bank rate policy

March 22, 2023 Paul Brain
Brainwaves episode 4: SVB, monetary policy and the bond markets
Video

Brainwaves Episode 4: SVB, Monetary Policy and the Bond Markets

Paul Brain considers what the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank means for bond markets.

March 21, 2023 Paul Brain, Matt Goodburn
Brainwaves episode 3: Has the bond market been getting it wrong?
Video

Brainwaves Episode 3: Has the Bond Market Been Getting It Wrong?

Fixed-income head Paul Brain discusses how bond markets can predict the economic cycle.

March 14, 2023 Paul Brain, Matt Goodburn
Brainwaves
Video

Brainwaves Episode 2: The Bond Outlook from Europe

Paul Brain discusses the bond outlook from Europe.

February 17, 2023 Paul Brain, Matt Goodburn
Coat, Clothing, Jacket
Video

Brainwaves Episode 1: The Outlook for Bonds in 2023

Why was 2022 so bad for bonds, and why are we more optimistic for 2023?

February 15, 2023 Paul Brain, Matt Goodburn
Blog

Global Bond Outlook: How Far Can the Rally Go?

We analyze the prospects for bond markets in 2023.

January 6, 2023 Paul Brain
The power of divergence
Blog

The Power of Divergence

We analyze how diverging economies can create opportunities for bond investors with a global mindset.

September 1, 2022 Paul Brain
Evolution not revolution: how our macro themes evolve
Blog

Evolution Not Revolution: How Our Macro Themes Evolve

We explain how our macro-focused investment themes have evolved to deal with a changing geopolitical and economic backdrop.

August 18, 2022 Paul Brain
Diverging fortunes: unearthing US bond opportunities
Blog

Diverging Fortunes: Unearthing US Bond Opportunities

We examine how the theme of divergence is creating opportunities for global bond investors in the US market.

June 7, 2022 Paul Brain
On the rise…
Blog

On the Rise…

We assess what the Fed’s latest monetary-policy signaling could mean for bond markets.

January 28, 2022 Paul Brain
Symbol, Road Sign, Sign
Blog

Inflation: Stick or Twist?

We assess central banks’ latest strategies on interest rates as near-term inflation continues to rise.

November 29, 2021 Paul Brain
Insights
Blog

Time for Taper Tantrum II?

We assess the mood in bond markets as central banks once again start to focus on tapering quantitative-easing…

September 17, 2021 Paul Brain
Something strange in bond markets
Blog

Something Strange in Bond Markets

We assess the drivers behind unusual recent moves in global bond markets and consider what may happen next.

July 28, 2021 Paul Brain
Inflationary Fears Overdone?
Blog

Inflationary Fears Overdone?

We assess the near and mid-term implications of central-bank and government policy for bond markets.

April 7, 2021 Paul Brain
US election
Blog

US Election: Bond Investors Shift Focus to 2021

We discuss how bond markets have responded to the US election.

November 9, 2020 Paul Brain
Blog

Beyond Covid-19: The ‘U-Bend’ Recovery

Why we believe the post-pandemic economy will take some time to get back to pre-crisis levels.

August 20, 2020 Paul Brain
Blog

European Recovery Assured?

We assess the ramifications of the European Union’s €750bn deal for EU bond markets and the euro.

July 23, 2020 Paul Brain
US dollar: devalue to save the world?
Blog

US Dollar: Devalue to Save the World?

We assess how US-dollar strength will affect the global economy as it starts to recover from the pandemic.

May 22, 2020 Paul Brain
Blog

Looking Through the Pandemic: The Shape of the Recovery

We assess some potential consequences of the pandemic, and how they may play out in the global economy.

May 11, 2020 Paul Brain, Howard Cunningham
The rise and rise of ‘MMT’ economics
Blog

Save and Prosper?

How the pandemic and rescue packages are changing both corporate behavior and the dynamics of fixed-income markets.

April 20, 2020 Howard Cunningham, Paul Brain
Covid-19: Looking through the crisis
Blog

Covid-19: Looking Through the Crisis

We analyze the impact of Covid-19 on global bond markets in anticipation of the next stage.

March 18, 2020 Paul Brain
The pain in Spain
Blog

The Pain in Spain

As the political deadlock looks set to continue in Spain, we assess the impact on debt markets.

November 12, 2019 Paul Brain
Blog

What Now for Spain?

Political uncertainty could create short-term instability for Spanish bond spreads, but will it last?

May 3, 2019 Paul Brain
Blog

Tick Tock

As the bond-market cycle clock ticks on, we offer our outlook for 2019.

February 15, 2019 Paul Brain
Blog

Awaiting the Endgame

Which key stress indicators could herald the next market stage for bonds?

December 13, 2018 Paul Brain
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This is a financial promotion. Issued by Newton Investment Management Limited, The Bank of New York Mellon Centre, 160 Queen Victoria Street, London, EC4V 4LA. Registered in England No. 01371973. Newton Investment Management is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, 12 Endeavour Square, London, E20 1JN and is a subsidiary of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation. Newton is registered with the SEC as an investment adviser under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. Newton’s investment business is described in Form ADV, Part 1 and 2, which can be obtained from the SEC.gov website or obtained upon request. Material in this publication is for general information only. The opinions expressed in this document are those of Newton and should not be construed as investment advice or recommendations for any purchase or sale of any specific security or commodity. Certain information contained herein is based on outside sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. You should consult your advisor to determine whether any particular investment strategy is appropriate. This material is for institutional investors only. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Your capital may be at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the original amount invested. Unless you are notified to the contrary, the products and services mentioned are not insured by the FDIC (or by any governmental entity) and are not guaranteed by or obligations of The Bank of New York or any of its affiliates. The Bank of New York assumes no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the above data and disclaims all expressed or implied warranties in connection therewith. © 2006 The Bank of New York Company, Inc. All rights reserved.